Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf45…5ed2
other · 7 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$25 -62%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 3 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +102%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $23 −$22 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 58% −$22
other 34% −$1
sports 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 25m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 25m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 9h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 13¢ $7 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 28¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 50% -67.4%
≤30d 4 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 50% -67.4%
≤90d 4 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 50% -67.4%
all 4 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 50% -67.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 50% -67.4%
10% -33.7% 25% -70.5%
15% -40.1% 25% -73.4%
20% -46.0% 25% -76.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.61 · official $6.61 (match) · 13 history records