Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

DF 0xdf43…e3b2 other 17 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$944 (-67%) realized −$908 · open −$36

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day17.5pace

Kalshi-fit6%portable

Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	6	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	6	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	6	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$151 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$433

Realized−$908

Unrealized−$36

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 6

Open positions11

Markets (closed)6 / 17

History coverage2d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day17.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 11 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$111	$104	−$7 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	7¢	$100	$71	−$29 (-29%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$52	$53	+$1 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$43	$44	+$1 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$39	$38	−$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	2¢	$35	$36	+$1 (+3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-12%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$317	−$310	-98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$457	−$453	-99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-95%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	7h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	23¢	$256	7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$9	27h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	27h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$12	27h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	27h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$26	27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$41	27h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$34	27h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$114	27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$130	38h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$103	40h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	40h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet	BUY No	0¢	$10	40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$327	40h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	20¢	$26	40h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	40h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.39 · official $433.81 (match) · 28 history records