Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdf43…a0eb crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$42 (-6%) realized −$43 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%31W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$2
other 22% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -19.1% -26.8% 44% 44% +17.7%
≤30d 16 -19.1% -26.8% 44% 44% +17.7%
≤90d 57 +8.4% -2.0% 54% 54% -9.9%
all 57 +8.4% -2.0% 54% 54% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 54% -9.9%
10% -11.3% 53% -18.5%
15% -19.9% 49% -26.4%
20% -27.8% 42% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses31 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage56d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $96 +$56 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$7 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 27 $105 −$85 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 27 $77 +$27 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 27 $80 −$8 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 27 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 27 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 27 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 27 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 27 $2 +$3 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 25 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 25 $4 +$4 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 25 $2 +$2 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 25 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 25 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 25 $1 +$2 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 25 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 19m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $152 25m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $20 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.12 · official $151.12 (match) · 139 history records