Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf3f…1365 sports 434 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,246 (+4%) realized +$2,049 · open +$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%239W / 174L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$606est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$571
7 days+$336
14 days+$2,357
30 days+$1,457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$2,663
other 6% −$612
world 2% +$293
crypto 2% −$488
politics 1% −$135
finance 1% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 59% -7.7%
≤30d 413 +2.3% -7.5% 58% 57% -7.1%
≤90d 413 +2.3% -7.5% 58% 57% -7.1%
all 413 +2.3% -7.5% 58% 57% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 57% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 51% -16.0%
15% -24.4% 43% -24.1%
20% -31.8% 37% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$102 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$2,570
Realized+$2,049
Unrealized+$197
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses239 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$606
Open positions21
Markets (closed)413 / 434
History coverage22d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 65¢ 97¢ $698 $1,033 +$335 (+48%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 85¢ 99¢ $200 $233 +$33 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 82¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-4%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 65¢ 66¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 53¢ 48¢ $85 $78 −$7 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 45¢ 44¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 62¢ 45¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 77¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $222 +$149 +67%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $150 +$18 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $212 +$40 +19%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $66 −$65 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $101 +$56 +55%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $76 −$75 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $272 −$153 -56%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $111 −$15 -14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $201 +$43 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $119 +$44 +37%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $66 +$96 +146%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 +$49 +32%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $101 +$69 +69%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $101 +$68 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $76 +$74 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $277 +$75 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $151 +$39 +26%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$60 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $352 −$350 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $151 +$34 +23%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $151 +$52 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $167 +$76 +46%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $86 −$85 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $110 −$90 -82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $151 −$150 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $839 +$530 +63%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $201 +$44 +22%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $71 +$88 +124%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $151 +$69 +46%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $303 +$180 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$79 -78%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $33 −$33 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,200 +$251 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$37 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $680 +$80 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$26 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $201 +$27 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $101 1m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $76 2m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 69¢ $101 31m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $101 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $66 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $76 6h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 72¢ $151 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $151 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $116 6h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $71 8h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $71 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 65¢ $111 8h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $101 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 77¢ $151 8h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL No 65¢ $96 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $101 8h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $111 9h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 53¢ $86 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 36¢ $57 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $61 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $43 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $201 19h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $66 20h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $76 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $101 20h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $101 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $121 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $151 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $151 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,570.48 · official $2,570.48 (match) · 799 history records