Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdf3f…7745 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+13%) realized +$106 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$117
14 days+$117
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$96
other 11% +$20
politics 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -15.4% -23.4% 41% 41% +6.4%
≤30d 32 -15.4% -23.4% 41% 41% +6.4%
≤90d 32 -15.4% -23.4% 41% 41% +6.4%
all 33 -17.9% -25.8% 39% 39% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 39% +3.5%
10% -32.9% 36% -6.4%
15% -39.4% 30% -15.5%
20% -45.3% 24% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage217d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$38 +125%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$31 -62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$5 -30%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $23 +$29 +122%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$7 +24%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$45 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $31 −$25 -80%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$22 +43%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$90 +439%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $20 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 12h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes $5 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $18 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $30 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 35¢ $10 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 14h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 15h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes $5 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $20 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $30 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 36h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran $11 36h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran $5 36h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran $10 38h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $10 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 67¢ $10 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $52 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 15¢ $1 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 35¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.65 · official $78.65 (match) · 59 history records