Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdf3d…9a15 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,230 (-31%) realized −$1,227 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$785
14 days−$1,243
30 days−$1,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$1,046
crypto 5% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.7% -21.0% 60% 50% -41.0%
≤30d 13 -23.9% -31.2% 54% 46% -39.4%
≤90d 13 -23.9% -31.2% 54% 46% -39.4%
all 13 -23.9% -31.2% 54% 46% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 46% -39.4%
10% -37.8% 38% -45.2%
15% -43.8% 23% -50.5%
20% -49.3% 23% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$315 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$1,227
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage9d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $138 $135 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $109 +$31 +28%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$44 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $181 −$180 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $198 +$48 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $223 −$221 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $692 −$690 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $223 +$200 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 +$3 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$180 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $904 +$142 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $139 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $137 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $109 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $65 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $181 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $198 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $223 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $692 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $223 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $72 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $69 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,045 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $904 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.05 · official $135.05 (match) · 22 history records