Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DF 0xdf3b…38db sports 597 markets active 2h ago coverage 651d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,728 (-8%) realized −$5,842 · open +$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%277W / 284L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3,767now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,018
7 days+$2,682
14 days+$2,666
30 days+$1,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$5,655
other 25% +$3,391
politics 12% −$1,381
world 7% +$530
finance 5% −$375
tech 2% +$272
crypto 2% −$1,090
economics 1% −$245
weather 0% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +12.7% +1.9% 58% 55% +18.5%
≤30d 150 +15.7% +4.7% 60% 58% -5.4%
≤90d 281 -17.7% -25.6% 45% 41% -31.3%
all 561 -0.0% -9.5% 49% 47% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 47% -15.7%
10% -18.2% 45% -23.8%
15% -26.1% 42% -31.1%
20% -33.4% 38% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$112 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

651d coverage
Net worth$3,767
Realized−$5,842
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses277 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions27
Markets (closed)561 / 597
History coverage651d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $410 $401 −$9 (-2%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $369 $385 +$16 (+4%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 47¢ $347 $376 +$29 (+8%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 89¢ 90¢ $243 $243 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 93¢ 94¢ $186 $188 +$2 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 57¢ 92¢ $114 $183 +$69 (+61%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 74¢ 84¢ $148 $167 +$19 (+13%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $150 $167 +$17 (+11%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $147 $166 +$19 (+13%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $150 $159 +$9 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $166 $149 −$17 (-10%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 70¢ 72¢ $140 $143 +$3 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $97 $116 +$19 (+19%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ 67¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 46¢ 92¢ $50 $99 +$49 (+99%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 40¢ 94¢ $40 $94 +$54 (+135%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? No 60¢ 92¢ $60 $92 +$32 (+53%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 58¢ 46¢ $117 $91 −$26 (-22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $96 $81 −$14 (-15%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 54¢ $70 $81 +$12 (+17%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+49%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 73¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $101 $53 −$48 (-48%)
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 37¢ $46 $37 −$9 (-20%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 58¢ 65¢ $21 $23 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $259 +$1 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $153 +$225 +147%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $111 +$128 +115%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 −$42 -42%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$39 +76%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $106 +$78 +74%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $253 +$150 +59%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $88 −$88 -99%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $145 +$155 +107%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$50 +100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $130 +$70 +54%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $82 +$68 +82%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $507 +$436 +86%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $71 +$40 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $132 −$132 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$100 -95%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $54 +$46 +86%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $134 −$132 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $364 +$400 +110%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $111 +$71 +64%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $45 −$30 -67%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $145 +$62 +43%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$49 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $153 +$287 +188%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $76 +$41 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $253 +$157 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $25 +$37 +146%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $251 +$46 +18%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$184 +180%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 +$87 +86%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 19 $51 +$46 +90%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 19 $199 +$27 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $198 −$195 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $130 −$128 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $126 −$125 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $101 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 12h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 30¢ $58 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 14h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $48 14h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $2 14h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $51 14h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 16h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 57¢ $108 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $55 17h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 17h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $38 17h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 40¢ $40 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $51 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $51 17h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 17h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $38 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $17 20h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 50¢ $50 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $18 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $27 20h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $101 20h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $55 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $130 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 55¢ $82 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 40¢ $153 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,767.15 · official $3,767.21 (match) · 2416 history records