Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf3b…843b
crypto · 1730 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$27 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1389 / 341
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1730 / 1730
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1730 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days−$4
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 59¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 351 -0.3% -9.8% 78% 66% -9.4%
≤30d 1164 +0.6% -9.0% 80% 67% -8.7%
≤90d 1730 +0.5% -9.0% 80% 68% -8.4%
all 1730 +0.5% -9.0% 80% 68% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 68% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 33% -17.2%
15% -25.7% 14% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 6% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.69 · official $1.69 (match) · 3209 history records