Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf3b…a42a
crypto · 1253 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$223 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$219 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses734 / 594
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1328 / 1253
History coverage22d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day113.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 1328 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$487
7 days−$435
14 days−$357
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$5 -179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $0 +$10 +321627%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$4 -2072%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$3 -6224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$2 -347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -558%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$10 -700%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$2 -1456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$9 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$10 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$208
other 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 634 +9.6% -0.8% 43% 37% -17.3%
≤30d 1328 +7.7% -2.5% 55% 49% -11.5%
≤90d 1328 +7.7% -2.5% 55% 49% -11.5%
all 1328 +7.7% -2.5% 55% 49% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover113.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 49% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 37% -19.9%
15% -20.4% 30% -27.7%
20% -28.2% 23% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.71 · official $7.71 (match) · 3500 history records