Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf3b…880a crypto 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$129 (-4%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%130W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$18
14 days+$0
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$63
sports 43% −$116
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -10.4% -18.9% 55% 55% -7.1%
≤30d 148 -8.2% -16.9% 55% 52% -13.0%
≤90d 184 -7.7% -16.4% 61% 44% -14.2%
all 208 -6.8% -15.7% 62% 43% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 43% -14.2%
10% -23.7% 38% -22.4%
15% -31.1% 34% -29.9%
20% -37.9% 26% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses130 / 78
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage100d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$14 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $43 +$31 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$10 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 851 history records