Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf3a…cbdb other 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%15W / 214L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$33
sports 25% −$20
politics 8% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
economics 6% −$4
culture 6% −$5
world 3% −$11
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 229 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses15 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage125d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $218 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $424 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $659 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $286 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $500 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $169 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $193 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $124 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $772 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 07 $392 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $116 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $108 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $352 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $241 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 10m
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 1h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 3h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 5h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 6h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 7h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $48 9h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 10h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 16h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 17h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 18h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 20h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 21h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 22h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 25h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 26h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $49 28h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $49 29h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 34h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 36h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 37h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $49 38h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 40h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $49 42h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 46h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1341 history records