Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdf38…9b6c politics 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$21
politics 39% −$21
sports 9% +$42
economics 3% −$1
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 116 -0.5% -10.0% 6% 4% -9.6%
all 123 +4.0% -5.9% 8% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 7% -9.5%
10% -14.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -23.1% 4% -26.1%
20% -30.7% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage114d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $301 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $222 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $290 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $307 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $249 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $275 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 15 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 13 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $303 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $286 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $310 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $321 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $225 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 01 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $300 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $249 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $270 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $277 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $243 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $268 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $307 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $321 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $39 5h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $39 17h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 29h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 5d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 11d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $220 21d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $220 23d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $310 23d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $310 23d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $301 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $301 25d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $222 25d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 26d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $291 26d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $291 26d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $304 26d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $304 27d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $290 28d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $290 29d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $292 29d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $292 29d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $307 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 384 history records