trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 8 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 50% | 50% | +1.6% |
| all | 13 | +24.2% | +12.3% | 46% | 46% | +22.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +12.3% | 46% | +22.9% |
| 10% | +1.6% | 38% | +11.1% |
| 15% | -8.2% | 38% | +0.4% |
| 20% | -17.2% | 31% | -9.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $300 | $298 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 40¢ | 10¢ | $500 | $117 | −$383 (-77%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | May 18 | $102 | +$66 | +65% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 14 | $202 | −$85 | -42% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | Apr 24 | $56 | +$32 | +58% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Apr 23 | $100 | +$46 | +46% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Apr 07 | $50 | −$6 | -11% |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Apr 03 | $1,000 | +$212 | +21% |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | Apr 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Mar 29 | $500 | −$8 | -2% |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Mar 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Mar 16 | $100 | +$344 | +344% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 08 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $500 | +$690 | +138% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Jan 11 | $500 | −$15 | -3% |