Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

DF 0xdf30…3d60 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$130 (-5%) realized −$128 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%4W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$242per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-28.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-21.4%	-28.9%	57%	57%	-23.1%
≤30d	7	-21.4%	-28.9%	57%	57%	-23.1%
≤90d	7	-21.4%	-28.9%	57%	57%	-23.1%
all	7	-21.4%	-28.9%	57%	57%	-23.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.9%	57%	-23.1%
10%	-35.7%	29%	-30.4%
15%	-41.9%	29%	-37.2%
20%	-47.6%	14%	-43.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$83 vs −$210 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$424

Realized−$128

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses4 / 3

Open positions3

Markets (closed)7 / 10

History coverage4d

Avg bet$242

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	90¢	$400	$398	−$2 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	93¢	92¢	$16	$16	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	86¢	86¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$304	+$33	+11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$102	−$70	-69%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$204	−$200	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$306	+$142	+46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$365	−$360	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$204	+$104	+51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$507	+$55	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$101	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$304	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	20¢	$32	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$102	17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$122	17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$204	17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$81	27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$101	28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$306	28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	85¢	$365	28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$204	2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	93¢	$16	2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	86¢	$10	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$405	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$101	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.66 · official $423.66 (match) · 19 history records