Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:19:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf2a…5ae1
sports · 291 markets active 0h ago
7.0score
+$122,017 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$116,391 · open −$6,519
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22,773
Realized+$116,391
Unrealized−$6,519
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses148 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$7,505
Open positions12
Markets (closed)279 / 291
History coverage84d
Avg bet$2,086
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 12 History 279 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63,765
7 days+$79,704
14 days+$91,853
30 days+$101,563
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 45¢ 42¢ $23,000 $21,151 −$1,849 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 47¢ 2¢ $5,000 $269 −$4,731 (-95%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $130 $222 +$92 (+71%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $198 $203 +$5 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 21¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-5%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $170 $161 −$9 (-6%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 22¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $200 $128 −$72 (-36%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $110 +$60 (+119%)
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $69 $37 −$32 (-46%)
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-93%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Team Spirit 43¢ 0¢ $2,150 $0 −$2,150 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 47¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $433 $0 −$433 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $270 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner L1ga Team 42¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $522 $0 −$522 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 26¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 54¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 M80 40¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Team Falcons 52¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner L1ga Team 31¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10,114 +$5,983 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,019 +$795 +26%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $10,137 +$8,224 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10,138 +$8,331 +82%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10,168 +$12,536 +123%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10,099 +$4,811 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,058 +$3,817 +94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $444 −$433 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30,192 +$7,924 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $906 −$900 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31,706 +$8,779 +28%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20,222 +$11,491 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,646 −$4,564 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4,065 −$4,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $10,108 −$10,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10,122 −$10,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $13,100 +$4,380 +33%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,034 +$1,804 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20,258 +$14,794 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10,194 +$17,998 +177%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $6,475 −$6,400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2,524 −$931 -37%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $3,029 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7,060 −$7,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,535 −$1,500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3,028 +$137 +4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,047 −$3,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,026 +$1,508 +74%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,530 +$1,632 +64%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,536 +$1,767 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $710 −$700 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,533 −$2,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3,033 +$1,724 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,528 +$1,460 +58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $2,528 +$1,436 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3,526 +$1,136 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6,047 +$2,259 +37%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,531 +$1,774 +70%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2,538 +$2,479 +98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $2,533 −$2,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,016 +$724 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,028 +$1,672 +82%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,540 −$2,500 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $548 −$540 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,016 +$721 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $2,019 +$877 +43%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,533 +$1,927 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $3,049 +$3,466 +114%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $3,038 −$3,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$104,398
crypto 3% +$2,558
other 1% +$2,915
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $6,103 0m
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $16,097 14m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $5,080 49m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $17,276 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $3,815 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 100¢ $18,360 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $18,469 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $10,114 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 79¢ $3,019 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $22,704 3h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 54¢ $10,137 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $10,138 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $14,910 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $7,875 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $1,018 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $3,040 6h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $10,168 11h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $10,099 11h
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $71 19h
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $203 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $154 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $205 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $444 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $38,116 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $906 20h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 20h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 20h
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 81¢ $10,056 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +4.5% -5.4% 63% 59% +13.9%
≤30d 119 +10.3% -0.2% 62% 61% +11.5%
≤90d 279 +1.2% -8.5% 53% 51% +8.8%
all 279 +1.2% -8.5% 53% 51% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 51% +8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 48% -1.6%
15% -25.2% 44% -11.1%
20% -32.6% 37% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,772.78 · official $22,773.04 (match) · 557 history records