Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:09:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DF 0xdf29…c439 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+15%) realized +$43 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$58
sports 25% +$30
world 10% −$18
politics 4% −$15
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 9 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 44% +12.3%
all 9 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 44% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 44% +12.3%
10% -17.7% 44% +1.6%
15% -25.7% 44% -8.2%
20% -33.0% 33% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage83d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $145 $145 +$0 (+0%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 65¢ 88¢ $13 $18 +$4 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $71 +$25 +36%
Will Xabi Alonso be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 18 $20 +$46 +228%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 13 $28 −$13 -46%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$11 +114%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Dominance" or "Superiority" during Monday news confere Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.17 · official $176.17 (match) · 58 history records