Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DF 0xdf29…60e6 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$58 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$54
politics 17% −$6
economics 6% −$2
sports 6% +$3
tech 5% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -3.1% -12.3% 9% 6% -9.7%
all 108 -3.1% -12.3% 9% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 6% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage88d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $153 $153 −$0 (-0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ 46¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $323 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $289 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $299 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $652 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $754 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $258 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $256 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $262 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $272 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $252 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $260 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $263 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 28 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $276 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $519 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $269 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $284 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $15 4h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 6h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 20h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 25h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 41h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $153 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 12d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $50 15d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 15d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 17d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 18d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.94 · official $166.94 (match) · 306 history records