Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:07:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf27…026f sports 916 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,335 (+6%) realized +$27,306 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate73%669W / 243L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$506per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Fees−$3,172est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$536
7 days+$1,416
14 days+$4,924
30 days+$11,556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$27,161
weather 17% −$19
other 15% −$109
world 1% +$3
politics 1% −$136
tech 0% −$365
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -0.3% -9.8% 70% 55% -7.1%
≤30d 486 +1.6% -8.0% 71% 57% -5.4%
≤90d 912 +5.3% -4.7% 73% 53% -4.3%
all 912 +5.3% -4.7% 73% 53% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 53% -4.3%
10% -13.8% 45% -13.4%
15% ← realistic here -22.2% 36% -21.8%
20% -29.8% 26% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$333 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized+$27,306
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses669 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$3,172
Open positions4
Markets (closed)912 / 916
History coverage66d
Avg bet$506
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 912 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 94¢ 93¢ $258 $256 −$2 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 100¢ $93 $100 +$7 (+7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $64 $81 +$17 (+27%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 80¢ $73 $80 +$6 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $218 +$82 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $82 +$18 +21%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $87 +$13 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $338 +$162 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $79 +$21 +26%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $175 −$175 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $64 +$36 +55%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $68 +$33 +48%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $900 +$100 +11%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $750 +$250 +33%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,693 +$771 +46%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $147 +$102 +70%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $736 −$736 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $73 +$27 +38%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $92 +$8 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $77 +$23 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $93 +$7 +7%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $290 +$210 +72%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $142 +$108 +76%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,175 +$525 +45%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $134 −$133 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $175 +$25 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $70 −$69 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $46 +$54 +116%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $83 +$17 +20%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$21 +11%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $58 +$42 +72%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $333 −$330 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $56 +$44 +79%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $137 −$137 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $77 +$23 +30%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $76 +$24 +32%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $63 +$37 +59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $71 +$29 +42%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $91 +$9 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $73 −$72 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $86 +$14 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $184 +$66 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $93 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $132 +$118 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $172 +$77 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $74 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $93 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $82 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $79 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $338 10h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 72¢ $73 10h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 72¢ $73 10h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 72¢ $73 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 87¢ $87 10h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 70¢ $127 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 70¢ $16 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 70¢ $32 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 58¢ $58 13h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 64¢ $22 14h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 64¢ $42 14h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 68¢ $48 16h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 65¢ $2 16h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 65¢ $19 16h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 75¢ $502 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 75¢ $147 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 75¢ $26 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 75¢ $75 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 90¢ $128 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 90¢ $322 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 90¢ $398 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 90¢ $52 17h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 94¢ $123 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 72¢ $26 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 72¢ $78 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.59 · official $516.60 (match) · 3388 history records