Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DF 0xdf27…4753 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$812 (-16%) realized +$5 · open −$817
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +193% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +165% what you keep after slip
Net edge+165%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$3,624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$183
14 days+$206
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$823
other 18% +$63
world 4% −$53
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+165.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +439.9% +388.5% 100% 100% +36.0%
≤30d 8 +303.1% +264.8% 88% 88% +26.7%
≤90d 11 +193.2% +165.3% 64% 64% -13.0%
all 11 +193.2% +165.3% 64% 64% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +165.3% 64% -13.0%
10% +139.9% 64% -21.3%
15% +116.7% 64% -28.9%
20% +95.5% 36% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +193% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$61 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$3,624
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$817
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)11 / 21
History coverage152d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 59¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,690 +$690 (+69%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $2,550 $1,532 −$1,018 (-40%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $500 $6 −$494 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$29 +56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$45 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$49 +49%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $103 −$103 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $78 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 14d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $100 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 67d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,000 70d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $500 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $100 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $3 75d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 76d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,500 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,623.56 · official $3,623.20 (match) · 45 history records