Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DF 0xdf24…0039 other 394 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%232W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$63
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$169
sports 47% −$185
crypto 5% −$4
economics 1% +$2
world 1% −$15
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +31.7% +19.1% 80% 80% +27.8%
≤30d 14 +7.9% -2.4% 64% 64% +5.0%
≤90d 101 -2.2% -11.5% 53% 51% -7.8%
all 389 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 54% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 54% -9.8%
10% -22.1% 45% -18.5%
15% -29.6% 35% -26.3%
20% -36.5% 29% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses232 / 157
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)389 / 394
History coverage258d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $15 +$24 +158%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$6 +55%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar May 11 $20 +$6 +29%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $15 +$13 +86%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 +$2 +10%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? May 10 $20 +$2 +10%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 10 $8 −$7 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $5 +$8 +158%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 +$6 +60%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $3 +$7 +238%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$6 +60%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $5 +$4 +70%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-26? May 03 $5 +$4 +93%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? May 03 $14 +$15 +105%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? May 03 $19 +$16 +83%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? May 03 $19 +$19 +97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? Apr 25 $10 −$9 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 +$9 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 10d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $20 44d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 38¢ $15 44d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 46d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 46d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 77¢ $20 46d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $15 46d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 53¢ $15 46d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 46d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 46d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 52d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.32 · official $129.32 (match) · 681 history records