Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf24…77ec crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized −$5 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$58
other 6% +$2
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -53.0% -57.5% 38% 25% -42.7%
≤30d 8 -53.0% -57.5% 38% 25% -42.7%
≤90d 8 -53.0% -57.5% 38% 25% -42.7%
all 8 -53.0% -57.5% 38% 25% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.5% 25% -42.7%
10% -61.5% 12% -48.2%
15% -65.2% 12% -53.2%
20% -68.7% 12% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.75 · official $16.75 (match) · 17 history records