Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf24…c540 politics 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%23W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$3
politics 26% −$14
sports 20% −$7
crypto 9% −$7
economics 6% +$3
finance 5% −$7
world 3% $0
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 61 -0.3% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.7%
all 147 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses23 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage170d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $219 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $60 $0 -1%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $70 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $144 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $292 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $410 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $93 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $297 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $992 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $117 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $249 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $842 −$4 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 16 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $461 −$2 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $300 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $420 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 13 $47 −$2 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 12 $66 −$1 -2%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $369 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $450 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $47 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $58 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $59 22d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 30d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 30d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 31d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 44d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $17 44d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $38 44d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $59 59d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 95¢ $60 59d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 59d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 59d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 61d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 62d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 62d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $38 62d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 62d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 62d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $52 62d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $53 62d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $193 62d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $194 62d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $56 62d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $41 67d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $16 67d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $50 67d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $50 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.50 · official $41.50 (match) · 707 history records