Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf23…8633 world 38 markets active 1d ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$6
sports 20% −$1
other 19% +$5
politics 10% +$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.3% -14.3% 11% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 12 -3.6% -12.8% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 13 -5.5% -14.5% 23% 0% -10.9%
all 38 -3.9% -13.0% 21% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage300d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $49 −$8 -16%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $48 +$3 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $42 +$1 +3%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 20 $6 −$2 -29%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 16 $146 $0 -0%
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 13 $4 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $23 +$6 +27%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 02 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 13 $17 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 19 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $41 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $49 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $49 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $50 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $49 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $50 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $51 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $48 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $17 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $6 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $4 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $19 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $36 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $49 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $35 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $14 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $20 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $43 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records