Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdf1f…5317 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67,640 (-24%) realized −$67,606 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,733per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$5,224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,627
7 days−$6,431
14 days−$6,431
30 days−$6,431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$44,098
culture 14% −$35,814
politics 11% −$53
crypto 7% −$141
sports 5% +$9,373
world 1% −$1,500
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.9% -14.9% 27% 27% -35.0%
≤30d 11 -5.9% -14.9% 27% 27% -35.0%
≤90d 11 -5.9% -14.9% 27% 27% -35.0%
all 48 -19.4% -27.1% 33% 27% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.1% 27% -33.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 21% -40.1%
15% -40.4% 15% -45.9%
20% -46.3% 8% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$6,068) neutral
Persistence
early -20% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,546 vs −$3,029 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$5,224
Realized−$67,606
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage303d
Avg bet$5,733
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5,258 $5,224 −$34 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,520 −$1,500 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,029 −$3,000 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $307 +$1,455 +473%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,068 −$1,482 -24%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,922 −$2,877 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,545 −$2,527 -71%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,538 +$1,925 +54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,775 +$1,825 +103%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $350 +$175 +50%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 08 $1,380 −$750 -54%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 01 $1,904 +$35 +2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jan 30 $4,012 −$77 -2%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 25 $3,630 −$1,098 -30%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 25 $3,450 −$2,300 -67%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 15 $1,863 +$740 +40%
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 15 $1,120 −$320 -29%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $4,700 −$4,700 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $6,130 +$838 +14%
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $5,730 −$5,093 -89%
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 09 $1,140 −$60 -5%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 08 $6,628 −$660 -10%
Brevis FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 08 $49 +$11 +22%
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 05 $9,252 −$9,251 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $3,000 −$1,055 -35%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $41,836 −$13,456 -32%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 28 $4,038 −$3,979 -98%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 23 $30,553 −$29,097 -95%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 22 $11,000 −$867 -8%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 21 $13,867 +$5,696 +41%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 21 $5,000 −$859 -17%
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 20 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 09 $5,440 +$1,451 +27%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Dec 09 $8,267 +$1,362 +16%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 01 $3,953 −$2,738 -69%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 25 $7,024 +$229 +3%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 17 $2,000 +$703 +35%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $7,917 +$6,905 +87%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $15,942 −$4,830 -30%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $2,000 −$428 -21%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 05 $2,000 −$551 -28%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $3,948 +$1,311 +33%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $28,714 +$72 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 08 $859 −$10 -1%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 08 $984 −$125 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5,294 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,520 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3,029 40h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,763 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $1,430 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $3,155 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5,057 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,922 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,018 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3,545 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,463 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3,538 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $882 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $137 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $746 5d
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $525 115d
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $279 115d
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $71 115d
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 21¢ $629 128d
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 60¢ $1,939 136d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $3,934 138d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $4,012 138d
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? SELL Yes 46¢ $2,532 143d
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,150 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,223.88 · official $5,223.88 (match) · 342 history records