Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf1f…fdf9 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized +$4 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$1,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$26
crypto 0% +$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.1% -31.3% 33% 33% -73.3%
≤30d 9 -24.1% -31.3% 33% 33% -73.3%
≤90d 9 -24.1% -31.3% 33% 33% -73.3%
all 9 -24.1% -31.3% 33% 33% -73.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 33% -73.3%
10% -37.9% 33% -75.8%
15% -43.9% 33% -78.2%
20% -49.4% 33% -80.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,105
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage8d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $192 $190 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $190 $189 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $190 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $180 $179 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +261%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $200 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $200 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $189 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $189 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $190 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $200 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 46h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,104.91 · official $1,104.91 (match) · 24 history records