Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf1d…3a45
crypto · 77 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$663 -39%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$658 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$123
Realized−$658
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 37
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)68 / 77
History coverage38d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 9 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$548
7 days−$546
14 days−$546
30 days−$543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 75¢ 69¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +25%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $435 −$435 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$4 +70%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $121 −$121 -100%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 10 $5 +$5 +91%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $60 +$13 +22%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 09 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 09 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 09 $11 +$71 +666%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 09 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 09 $12 +$11 +86%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 09 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 09 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 09 $60 +$8 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $60 +$17 +28%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 09 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% −$647
crypto 27% −$44
other 8% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 78¢ $29 1m
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 12m
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 13m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 16m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 16m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 17m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 19m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 21m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $20 21m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 21m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $23 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 77¢ $13 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $13 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $10 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 80¢ $201 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 80¢ $99 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $101 34d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 61¢ $89 34d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 53¢ $100 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -27.2% -34.1% 54% 46% -76.8%
≤30d 14 -20.2% -27.8% 57% 50% -75.9%
≤90d 68 -21.7% -29.1% 46% 44% -47.9%
all 68 -21.7% -29.1% 46% 44% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 44% -47.9%
10% -35.9% 34% -52.9%
15% -42.1% 19% -57.4%
20% -47.8% 16% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.74 · official $122.75 (match) · 194 history records