Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf1a…bcb6 crypto 1677 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$200 (+1%) realized +$200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%937W / 643L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$483
14 days+$707
30 days+$1,310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$635
other 0% −$20
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 291 +10.5% +0.0% 61% 61% +2.3%
≤30d 1214 +10.5% -0.0% 61% 61% +1.4%
≤90d 1580 +8.0% -2.3% 59% 59% -7.1%
all 1580 +8.0% -2.3% 59% 59% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 59% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 59% -16.0%
15% -20.2% 59% -24.1%
20% -28.0% 54% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses937 / 643
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1580 / 1677
History coverage61d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1580 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$18 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$11 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$16 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$17 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$19 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$8 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$36 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$11 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$8 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$14 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$10 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$10 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$14 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$9 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $19 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $19 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $19 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $19 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $18 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $18 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2713 history records