Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf19…51b5 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+6%) realized +$49 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$44
sports 8% −$7
crypto 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -8.4% -17.1% 17% 17% -1.9%
≤30d 18 -8.4% -17.1% 17% 17% -1.9%
≤90d 18 -8.4% -17.1% 17% 17% -1.9%
all 18 -8.4% -17.1% 17% 17% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 17% -1.9%
10% -25.0% 17% -11.3%
15% -32.3% 17% -19.8%
20% -38.9% 6% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$2 · ×11.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $48 −$3 -6%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $42 −$3 -8%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $32 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $34 +$19 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $73 −$3 -4%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 $0 -8%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $64 +$31 +48%
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 41¢ $45 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $69 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $19 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $56 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $63 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up $5 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $34 9h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 9h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $29 9h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 23¢ $10 2d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $34 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $36 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $36 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $37 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.22 · official $247.22 (match) · 53 history records