Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdf18…386f crypto 1270 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$409 (-4%) realized −$409 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate57%808W / 617L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day90.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$265
7 days−$321
14 days−$302
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$254
weather 0% +$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 -3.4% -12.6% 30% 28% -33.1%
≤30d 831 -8.0% -16.8% 44% 27% -18.9%
≤90d 1425 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 17% -14.3%
all 1425 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 17% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 17% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 15% -22.5%
15% -26.3% 12% -30.0%
20% -33.5% 9% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$409
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses808 / 617
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1425 / 1270
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day90.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1425 Trades
no open positions (330 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +2641%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$5 -153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$7 -151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $9 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $9 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $9 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $7 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records