Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DF 0xdf18…af99 other 1198 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$83 (+0%) realized −$61 · open +$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%743W / 420L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$4,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$215
14 days−$99
30 days−$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$282
other 8% −$438
sports 4% −$65
finance 0% +$100
world 0% +$62
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -19.6% -27.2% 48% 33% -16.6%
≤30d 179 -28.9% -35.7% 44% 29% -13.7%
≤90d 802 -20.4% -28.0% 49% 36% -14.2%
all 1163 -2.6% -11.9% 64% 42% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 42% -9.6%
10% -20.3% 40% -18.2%
15% -28.0% 37% -26.1%
20% -35.1% 30% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$4,524
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$144
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses743 / 420
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1163 / 1198
History coverage237d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 1163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $480 $478 −$2 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $328 $357 +$29 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $380 $328 −$52 (-14%)
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $202 $269 +$67 (+33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $305 $265 −$40 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $242 $264 +$22 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $251 $252 +$1 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $200 $231 +$31 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? No 46¢ 52¢ $200 $225 +$25 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 68¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+5%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $206 $208 +$2 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $100 $180 +$80 (+80%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 90¢ 84¢ $120 $111 −$9 (-7%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 72¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 84¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 58¢ 60¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 93¢ 92¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 19? Jun 19 $373 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 19? Jun 19 $300 +$1 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$18 +90%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$16 +79%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 18? Jun 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$13 +65%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$18 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-25? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 15? Jun 15 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$1 -3%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$22 +86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$25 +124%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$20 +48%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 12? Jun 12 $810 +$2 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$28 +140%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 11? Jun 11 $640 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $480 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $300 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $20 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $20 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 7h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $20 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $20 28h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $20 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 10¢ $21 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $20 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $69 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,524.22 · official $4,524.22 (match) · 2923 history records