Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf15…c689
crypto · 245 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,511 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,504 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$436
Realized−$5,504
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses106 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)241 / 245
History coverage138d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 4 History 241 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$70
14 days−$670
30 days−$1,341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $149 $141 −$8 (-5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $72 $78 +$7 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $132 +$5 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 13 $121 −$4 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$2 -4%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $50 −$33 -66%
Solana Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $120 −$58 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $91 +$22 +24%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $114 +$17 +15%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 31 $129 +$36 +28%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $65 +$38 +58%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $87 −$87 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 31 $58 −$58 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $192 −$192 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $90 −$90 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $144 +$64 +45%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 31 $108 +$67 +62%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 31 $139 +$69 +50%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $278 −$265 -95%
Solana Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $642 +$82 +13%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4AM ET May 30 $146 +$14 +10%
Solana Up or Down on May 9? May 29 $767 −$767 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 1PM ET May 08 $90 −$90 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 2PM ET May 08 $354 −$344 -97%
Solana Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $103 −$58 -56%
Solana Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $521 +$77 +15%
Solana Up or Down on April 13? Apr 12 $215 −$51 -24%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 12PM ET Apr 12 $133 −$116 -87%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 4AM ET Apr 12 $189 +$49 +26%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 5PM ET Apr 11 $155 +$38 +24%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 4PM ET Apr 11 $145 +$11 +7%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 2PM ET Apr 11 $97 −$96 -98%
Solana Up or Down on April 12? Apr 11 $108 −$61 -56%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 1PM ET Apr 11 $242 −$28 -12%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 12PM ET Apr 11 $136 +$8 +6%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 8PM ET Apr 08 $209 −$209 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 7PM ET Apr 07 $53 +$37 +70%
Solana Up or Down on April 8? Apr 07 $661 −$603 -91%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 10AM ET Apr 07 $262 +$60 +23%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 8AM ET Apr 07 $100 +$75 +76%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 7AM ET Apr 07 $243 +$75 +31%
Solana Up or Down on April 7? Apr 06 $256 −$41 -16%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12PM ET Apr 06 $99 +$18 +18%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 6AM ET Apr 06 $99 +$9 +9%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 6PM ET Apr 06 $199 −$199 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 7PM ET Apr 06 $276 −$276 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 2PM ET Apr 05 $641 −$472 -74%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 1PM ET Apr 05 $255 −$255 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 11AM ET Apr 05 $301 −$301 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 12PM ET Apr 05 $243 +$23 +10%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 10AM ET Apr 05 $99 +$60 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$5,503
other 2% −$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $73 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $74 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $67 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $67 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $63 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $63 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $90 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 76¢ $117 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $48 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $48 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $50 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $17 9h
Solana Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 18¢ $17 9h
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 49¢ $50 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $54 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $121 36h
Solana Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 24¢ $62 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $113 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $91 2d
Solana Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 34¢ $60 2d
Solana Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 56¢ $60 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $48 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $122 2d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $131 13d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $29 13d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $85 13d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $165 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 17% -20.7%
≤30d 21 -24.2% -31.5% 48% 38% -42.1%
≤90d 78 -17.8% -25.6% 51% 41% -30.4%
all 241 -11.7% -20.1% 44% 35% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 35% -21.3%
10% -27.7% 28% -28.9%
15% -34.7% 18% -35.7%
20% -41.1% 13% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.49 · official $436.49 (match) · 1339 history records