Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:07:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DF 0xdf10…7919 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$38 (+19%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$16
other 40% +$16
crypto 13% +$1
world 5% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.8% +1.1% 58% 58% +16.3%
≤30d 12 +11.8% +1.1% 58% 58% +16.3%
≤90d 12 +11.8% +1.1% 58% 58% +16.3%
all 12 +11.8% +1.1% 58% 58% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 58% +16.3%
10% -8.5% 58% +5.2%
15% -17.4% 50% -5.0%
20% -25.5% 50% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $38 +$34 +90%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +144%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 5m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 21h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 42h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $38 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $25 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.26 · official $35.26 (match) · 20 history records