Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DF 0xdf10…ba77 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,044 (-79%) realized −$3,040 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,048
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +12.9% +2.2% 46% 46% -13.6%
≤30d 13 +12.9% +2.2% 46% 46% -13.6%
≤90d 13 +12.9% +2.2% 46% 46% -13.6%
all 21 -30.1% -36.8% 29% 29% -87.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 29% -87.0%
10% -42.8% 29% -88.3%
15% -48.3% 29% -89.4%
20% -53.4% 29% -90.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$225 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$3,040
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage208d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Under 85¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 +$71 +140%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 +$77 +152%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 26 $51 +$149 +291%
Capitals vs. Islanders Jun 24 $10 +$9 +85%
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5 Jun 24 $10 +$10 +100%
Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5 Jun 24 $10 +$10 +100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Magic (-5.5) Jan 15 $2,950 −$2,950 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5 Dec 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5 Dec 05 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5 Dec 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5 Dec 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Senators vs. Stars Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Flames vs. Hurricanes Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Ducks vs. Blackhawks Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $100 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 38¢ $51 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 25¢ $51 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 25¢ $51 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2d
Spread: Magic (-5.5) BUY Grizzlies 50¢ $9 161d
Spread: Magic (-5.5) BUY Grizzlies 50¢ $20 161d
Spread: Magic (-5.5) BUY Grizzlies 50¢ $1,350 161d
Spread: Magic (-5.5) BUY Grizzlies 50¢ $4 161d
Spread: Magic (-5.5) BUY Grizzlies 50¢ $18 161d
Spread: Magic (-5.5) BUY Grizzlies 50¢ $32 161d
Spread: Magic (-5.5) BUY Grizzlies 50¢ $1,516 161d
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 196d
Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 196d
Clippers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 202d
76ers vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 202d
Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 202d
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 202d
Senators vs. Stars BUY Senators 43¢ $10 207d
Flames vs. Hurricanes BUY Flames 32¢ $10 207d
Ducks vs. Blackhawks BUY Ducks 55¢ $10 207d
Capitals vs. Islanders BUY Capitals 54¢ $10 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.88 · official $295.88 (match) · 39 history records