Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf0e…c02b other 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (303 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$463 (-5%) realized −$414 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate25%25W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day303.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$274
world 28% −$35
politics 17% −$55
crypto 7% −$39
economics 5% −$3
finance 4% −$19
sports 3% −$13
tech 1% −$2
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (303 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -6.8% -15.7% 25% 1% -13.6%
≤30d 102 -6.8% -15.7% 25% 1% -13.6%
≤90d 102 -6.8% -15.7% 25% 1% -13.6%
all 102 -6.8% -15.7% 25% 1% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover303.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 1% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 0% -21.8%
15% -31.1% 0% -29.4%
20% -37.9% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized−$414
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses25 / 77
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions25
Markets (closed)102 / 127
History coverage2d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day303.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by June 30? No 98¢ 96¢ $58 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? No 85¢ 80¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-28%)
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? No 60¢ 46¢ $37 $28 −$8 (-22%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $25 $26 +$2 (+7%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 29¢ 30¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-9%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $23 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 22¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-22%)
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 46¢ 38¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-16%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $20 $13 −$8 (-39%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 20¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? No 17¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-32%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27? No 6¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 40¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 66¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 79¢ 27¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Will Spain be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 43¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 29¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $130 −$3 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $33 −$4 -11%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $64 −$1 -1%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 15 $212 −$27 -13%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 -3%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $133 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 15 $179 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $178 +$5 +2%
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 15 $30 −$4 -13%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 15 $99 −$7 -7%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $23 −$3 -11%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $58 +$3 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $57 −$3 -6%
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 15 $22 −$10 -45%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 15 $342 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 15 $14 −$2 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $180 −$19 -10%
Will Brazil be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W Jun 15 $251 −$25 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Sw Jun 15 $25 −$2 -10%
Will Pau Cubarsí be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $415 $0 -0%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $374 +$3 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 −$9 -50%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 15 $127 −$2 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $113 +$1 +0%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $0 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $155 −$17 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $120 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 14 $368 −$35 -10%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 14 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $154 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $53 +$2 +4%
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 14 $68 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 2m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 29¢ $2 4m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 29¢ $2 7m
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 10m
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 72¢ $38 14m
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 74¢ $10 15m
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $50 27m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $10 32m
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 33m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $28 33m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 38m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $40 49m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 44¢ $121 55m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $9 58m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $34 58m
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 1h
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 1h
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 1h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 54¢ $73 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $104 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $4 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $32 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.83 · official $363.08 (match) · 600 history records