Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DF 0xdf0a…a9e0 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$157 (+8%) realized −$68 · open +$225
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$75
14 days+$131
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$37
world 40% +$17
other 10% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -37.8% -43.7% 0% 0% -43.7%
≤30d 4 +5.6% -4.4% 50% 50% -21.1%
≤90d 10 +12.6% +1.8% 50% 50% -13.4%
all 10 +12.6% +1.8% 50% 50% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 50% -13.4%
10% -7.9% 50% -21.7%
15% -16.8% 50% -29.2%
20% -25.0% 50% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$129 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$225
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage73d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 49¢ 78¢ $374 $599 +$225 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 19 $199 −$75 -38%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $102 +$107 +105%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 08 $180 +$99 +55%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 26? May 22 $228 −$220 -97%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 14 $202 −$172 -85%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 03 $218 +$164 +75%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 29? Apr 29 $181 −$175 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 20? Apr 20 $92 +$90 +98%
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Pr Apr 17 $94 −$3 -3%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on April 10? Apr 10 $100 +$118 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.59 · official $599.35 (match) · 23 history records