Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DF 0xdf07…652c other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$456 (+31%) realized +$456 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$299
other 47% +$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +26.3% +14.3% 89% 78% +23.8%
≤30d 9 +26.3% +14.3% 89% 78% +23.8%
≤90d 9 +26.3% +14.3% 89% 78% +23.8%
all 9 +26.3% +14.3% 89% 78% +23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 78% +23.8%
10% +3.4% 56% +11.9%
15% -6.6% 44% +1.1%
20% -15.8% 33% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$50 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×11.63 per $1 lost it wins $11.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$456
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $131 +$33 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $301 +$25 +8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $100 +$18 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $305 +$196 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $149 50m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $325 52m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 92¢ $301 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 28¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $119 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 84¢ $100 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $203 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 34h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.64 · official $49.64 (match) · 26 history records