Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf07…9a4c other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-93%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$99
sports 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -56.5% -60.7% 33% 33% -94.2%
≤30d 3 -56.5% -60.7% 33% 33% -94.2%
≤90d 3 -56.5% -60.7% 33% 33% -94.2%
all 3 -56.5% -60.7% 33% 33% -94.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.7% 33% -94.2%
10% -64.4% 33% -94.8%
15% -67.9% 0% -95.3%
20% -71.0% 0% -95.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$50 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $91 −$89 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $84 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 5 history records