Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xdeff…78f8 sports 337 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,793 (-3%) realized −$2,712 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%159W / 176L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1,619est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,815
7 days+$2,990
14 days+$2,971
30 days+$1,451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,673
other 1% −$971
crypto 1% +$663
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +7.7% -2.6% 52% 52% +4.2%
≤30d 132 +31.7% +19.1% 45% 45% -10.2%
≤90d 317 +8.6% -1.7% 48% 48% -13.5%
all 335 +6.9% -3.2% 47% 47% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 47% -14.4%
10% -12.5% 47% -22.6%
15% -21.0% 44% -30.1%
20% -28.7% 39% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$285 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$2,712
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses159 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,619
Open positions2
Markets (closed)335 / 337
History coverage145d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Hurkacz 54¢ 56¢ $396 $411 +$15 (+4%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Lorenzo Sonego 28¢ 1¢ $99 $3 −$96 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 17 $241 +$207 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $666 +$554 +83%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $590 −$581 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $500 +$343 +69%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $503 −$495 -98%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $284 −$277 -98%
Set Handicap: Kecmanovic (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 16 $149 +$78 +53%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $201 +$266 +132%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $502 −$495 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $303 −$297 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $222 +$1,325 +596%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $584 +$577 +99%
Fery vs. Samuel: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $301 −$297 -99%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $375 +$225 +60%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $195 −$191 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,001 +$594 +59%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $971 +$507 +52%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $498 −$493 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $505 −$495 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $463 −$456 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Tiafoe Jun 15 $637 +$436 +68%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $584 +$782 +134%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $606 +$290 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$99 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $202 −$198 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $252 −$247 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $837 +$663 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $594 −$594 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $451 −$446 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $258 +$147 +57%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $360 −$354 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $305 +$379 +124%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Jun 13 $401 +$239 +60%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $311 +$159 +51%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $325 +$309 +95%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $502 −$495 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $577 −$570 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $503 +$573 +114%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $390 +$850 +218%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $601 +$405 +67%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $85 −$84 -98%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 11 $151 −$149 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $601 +$559 +93%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 10 $520 −$515 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $673 +$369 +55%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $382 +$291 +76%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $206 −$204 -99%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $203 −$198 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $492 +$268 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) SELL Minaur 100¢ $448 1m
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 54¢ $37 16m
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 54¢ $1 17m
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 54¢ $4 17m
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 54¢ $3 17m
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 54¢ $40 17m
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 54¢ $6 17m
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 54¢ $15 18m
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 54¢ $276 18m
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 53¢ $13 18m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 28¢ $101 35m
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) BUY Minaur 53¢ $241 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $290 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $266 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $35 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $11 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $6 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $56 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 48¢ $590 17h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $843 20h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 49¢ $396 20h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 49¢ $106 20h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 23¢ $284 21h
Set Handicap: Kecmanovic (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) SELL Marozsan 100¢ $227 21h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 99¢ $467 21h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 59¢ $25 21h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 59¢ $285 21h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 58¢ $190 21h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 54¢ $502 22h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 34¢ $303 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.66 · official $412.29 (match) · 868 history records