Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdef8…8615 weather 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate51%89W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 29% $0
other 25% −$5
politics 19% −$6
crypto 16% +$2
sports 6% −$16
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% −$5
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 74 -0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 125 -0.8% -10.3% 44% 0% -9.7%
all 176 -4.8% -13.9% 51% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 1% -10.3%
10% -22.1% 1% -18.9%
15% -29.6% 1% -26.8%
20% -36.5% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses89 / 87
Open positions4
Markets (closed)176 / 180
History coverage553d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 25? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 4? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Michael Anderson be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 2? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will "The Roast of Kevin Hart" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 1? Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Dominic Calvert-Lewin be included in England's official 2026 Worl Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 1? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by May 31? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 31? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Martinelli have the most goal contributions in the 2025-2 May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presi May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 30? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 30? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 30? May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%? May 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 29? May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 28? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $21 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $23 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $23 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $13 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $18 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $24 20h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? SELL No 100¢ $13 12d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $28 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $12 22d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $9 22d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $5 22d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $17 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.69 · official $68.69 (match) · 398 history records