Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xdef6…3614
other · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$43 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$43 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage260d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 0 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $83 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $26 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 23 $30 −$7 -25%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $55 +$47 +86%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $39 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $15 +$4 +30%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $115 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 18 $61 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $1 $0 +26%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $6 −$2 -31%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $41 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$46
sports 18% −$3
world 16% $0
politics 13% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $41 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $17 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $22 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $18 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $6 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $14 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $1 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $43 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $44 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $25 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $40 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $40 4d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 23¢ $4 81d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 27¢ $5 198d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 27¢ $4 198d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 27¢ $9 198d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $7 198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $7 198d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 198d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 198d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 198d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 199d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 199d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 -5.0% -14.1% 17% 0% -12.9%
all 41 +2.0% -7.7% 32% 7% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 7% -5.9%
10% -16.5% 7% -14.9%
15% -24.6% 2% -23.1%
20% -32.0% 2% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records