Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xdef6…d18f sports 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$987 (-7%) realized −$984 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%150W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$116
14 days−$349
30 days−$925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 46% -2.5%
≤30d 182 -12.5% -20.8% 45% 45% -21.5%
≤90d 317 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 47% -17.8%
all 317 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 47% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 47% -17.8%
10% -25.8% 47% -25.7%
15% -32.9% 46% -32.9%
20% -39.5% 44% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$40 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$984
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses150 / 167
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions6
Markets (closed)317 / 323
History coverage66d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 44¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 38¢ 38¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ 50¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 56¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) New York Mets 53¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 +$22 +73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$19 +62%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $46 +$40 +87%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $46 +$52 +114%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$18 +60%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $61 +$62 +101%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $46 +$46 +101%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 +$17 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $46 −$42 -93%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $46 +$76 +165%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $46 +$43 +93%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 +$17 +57%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 −$22 -71%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 23 $46 −$1 -2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $46 +$73 +158%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 −$2 -5%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $46 −$41 -89%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 −$26 -85%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $46 +$95 +206%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $46 +$39 +86%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$23 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $46 +$95 +206%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $46 +$31 +68%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $30 +$19 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $46 +$31 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $30 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 53¢ $30 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $30 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $46 1h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ $46 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 38¢ $46 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 57¢ $30 27h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 52¢ $30 27h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $46 27h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $46 27h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $49 39h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Washington Nationals 95¢ $49 42h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $85 42h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $98 42h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 61¢ $30 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 58¢ $30 2d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 49¢ $30 2d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 49¢ $30 2d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 62¢ $30 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $46 2d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $46 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ $46 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins $3 2d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 50¢ $30 3d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 63¢ $30 3d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 52¢ $30 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $46 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $46 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $46 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 37¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.72 · official $221.72 (match) · 1345 history records