Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xdef3…ad80 sports 225 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$7 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate51%94W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days−$30
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% −$52
sports 45% −$41
other 7% +$22
politics 1% −$4
world 1% +$3
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 36% -9.8%
≤30d 186 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 32% -14.3%
≤90d 186 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 32% -14.3%
all 186 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 32% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 32% -14.3%
10% -27.2% 24% -22.5%
15% -34.2% 21% -30.0%
20% -40.7% 21% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses94 / 92
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions39
Markets (closed)186 / 225
History coverage24d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 56¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+78%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 43¢ 66¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+52%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Over 54¢ 76¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 59¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? No 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? No 43¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+132%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Baltimore Orioles 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 58¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 72¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? No 65¢ 97¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Over 54¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 55¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 42¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 54¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.? No 61¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 55¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30? No 78¢ 57¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Houston Astros 43¢ 24¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists No 83¢ 50¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-40%)
Payton Tolle: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Under 99¢ 50¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Alec Bohm: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Aguilar vs Almeida Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Toss Match Double Engla Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -43%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Asuncion 2: Completed Match: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$8 +761%
Heredia vs. Ambrogi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Maccabi Tel-Aviv (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Villanueva vs Torres Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Garcia vs Dapkute Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Kicker vs. Coria: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Monnet (-1.5) vs Trevisan (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Game 2: Ends in Daytime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Set Handicap: Fontenel (-1.5) vs Petretic (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Simakin vs. Vasami: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Vandromme vs. Zamarripa: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Bosio (-1.5) vs Longueville (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Serna (-1.5) vs Monzon (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Noah Lopez Cherubino vs Alvaro Jimenez Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mika Petkovic vs Pierre Antoine Tailleu Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Bueno vs Berkieta Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -88%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 44¢ $2 7m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 18m
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $4 18m
Framber Valdez: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 23m
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 62¢ $5 25m
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY No 78¢ $4 27m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 30m
Exact Score: Fortaleza EC 0 - 3 América FC? BUY No 1¢ $1 32m
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 36m
Set 2 Winner: Aguilar vs Almeida BUY Almeida 1¢ $1 52m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 54m
Payton Tolle: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 55m
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.? BUY No 61¢ $3 59m
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 1h
Ben Rice: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 51¢ $3 1h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 82¢ $4 2h
Alec Bohm: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $5 2h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY No 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 88¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $3 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $5 2h
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY No 76¢ $4 2h
Asuncion 2: Completed Match: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY No 1¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.49 · official $129.49 (match) · 405 history records