Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

DE 0xdef2…21ac crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 578d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$142 (+5%) realized +$136 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip

Net edge-45%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate30%6W / 14L

Drawdown95%max

Avg bet$123per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$1,046now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$20

7 days−$20

14 days−$20

30 days−$20

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-44.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	20	-38.9%	-44.7%	30%	25%	-2.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.7%	25%	-2.2%
10%	-50.0%	20%	-11.5%
15%	-54.8%	15%	-20.1%
20%	-59.3%	15%	-27.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -39% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -32% → late -46% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$80 vs −$26 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.33 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage

Net worth$1,046

Realized+$136

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses6 / 14

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage578d

Avg bet$123

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown95%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	80¢	80¢	$1,040	$1,046	+$6 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$18	−$18	-100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$2	−$2	-97%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?	Jan 30	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?	Jan 12	$930	+$70	+8%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 7PM ET	Oct 13	$1	−$1	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 8?	Oct 08	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meet	Mar 20	$92	+$308	+335%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025?	Mar 06	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his	Jan 21	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?	Jan 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?	Jan 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?	Jan 20	$20	+$11	+56%
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?	Jan 20	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during victory rally?	Jan 20	$50	+$87	+174%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10?	Jan 15	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?	Jan 10	$10	+$3	+30%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?	Dec 05	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in November?	Dec 05	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?	Dec 05	$50	−$50	-100%
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22?	Nov 21	$1	$0	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	9¢	$18	1h
AI bubble burst in 2026?	SELL No	80¢	$79	1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	8h
AI bubble burst in 2026?	BUY No	80¢	$1,129	30d
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?	BUY Yes	4¢	$40	142d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?	BUY No	93¢	$930	208d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 7PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	250d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 7PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	250d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 8?	BUY No	6¢	$0	256d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 8?	BUY No	6¢	$29	256d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 8?	BUY No	6¢	$2	256d
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meet	BUY Yes	23¢	$22	458d
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meet	BUY Yes	23¢	$2	458d
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meet	BUY Yes	23¢	$60	459d
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meet	BUY Yes	23¢	$0	459d
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meet	BUY Yes	23¢	$3	459d
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meet	BUY Yes	23¢	$2	459d
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meet	BUY Yes	23¢	$2	471d
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025?	BUY Yes	57¢	$100	517d
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?	BUY Yes	7¢	$30	518d
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during victory rally?	BUY No	37¢	$50	518d
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	527d
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	527d
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	527d
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	527d
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10?	BUY Yes	4¢	$30	527d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?	BUY Yes	4¢	$50	575d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in November?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	576d
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22?	SELL Yes	96¢	$1	576d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?	BUY No	59¢	$10	577d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,045.66 · official $1,045.66 (match) · 49 history records