Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DE 0xdef2…c543 world 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,524 (+49%) realized +$1,330 · open +$194
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$780
14 days+$1,248
30 days+$1,053
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$1,930
sports 15% −$454
other 14% −$213
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +48.5% +34.4% 40% 40% +35.9%
≤30d 17 +26.3% +14.3% 35% 35% +30.4%
≤90d 17 +26.3% +14.3% 35% 35% +30.4%
all 17 +26.3% +14.3% 35% 35% +30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 35% +30.4%
10% +3.4% 35% +17.9%
15% -6.6% 29% +6.5%
20% -15.8% 24% -3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$90 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$848
Realized+$1,330
Unrealized+$194
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)17 / 24
History coverage18d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 26¢ $150 $514 +$364 (+243%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No $30 $43 +$13 (+43%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 23¢ $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $200 −$72 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $175 −$127 -72%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $50 −$45 -90%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $396 +$655 +166%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 −$68 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 14 $35 +$190 +544%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $250 +$534 +214%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $265 −$259 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $66 −$41 -62%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $54 +$12 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $180 −$110 -61%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $33 −$19 -56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $200 +$82 +41%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $56 −$43 -77%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $169 +$571 +338%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $197 −$195 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $103 4m
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 32m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $50 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 14¢ $100 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $346 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $117 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No $30 21h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $45 21h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $55 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $66 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 15¢ $42 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 37¢ $100 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 63¢ $86 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $42 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 11¢ $143 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $140 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $70 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $200 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $225 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 74¢ $784 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 73¢ $908 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $200 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $150 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes $56 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $92 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $71 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $848.26 · official $848.26 (match) · 83 history records