Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xdef1…7a1e
sports · 279 markets active 1h ago
6.5score
+$458 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$468 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$506
Realized+$468
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses141 / 112
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions26
Markets (closed)253 / 279
History coverage119d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 26 History 253 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days+$224
14 days+$215
30 days+$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
ITF Guimaraes: Katarina Kuzmova vs Savannah Broadus Savannah Broadus 57¢ 88¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+55%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Katie Boulter 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 13 $20 +$14 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $20 +$21 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $31 +$58 +188%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $75 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 31 $10 +$7 +67%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 31 $10 +$7 +67%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 31 $10 +$7 +67%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 31 $10 +$7 +73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 31 $10 +$8 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 31 $10 +$8 +79%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $10 +$10 +97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 31 $20 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 31 $10 +$11 +105%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $10 +$12 +119%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 31 $10 +$13 +124%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 31 $20 +$14 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Kia Tigers May 27 $10 +$8 +74%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Switzerland vs Malta May 27 $10 +$8 +81%
ITF Bol: Lea Nilsson vs Iva Primorac May 27 $10 +$8 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% +$472
crypto 5% −$13
world 5% +$3
other 3% −$1
tech 2% −$5
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 97¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
ITF Guimaraes: Katarina Kuzmova vs Savannah Broadus BUY Savannah Broadus 57¢ $10 1h
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic BUY Katie Boulter 54¢ $10 1h
ITF Ceska Lipa: Caijsa Hennemann vs Julia Avdeeva BUY Caijsa Hennemann 53¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $20 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 98¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $20 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $31 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $4 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $10 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 45¢ $10 7d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 36¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +110.7% +90.6% 100% 93% +98.3%
≤30d 94 +16.2% +5.1% 59% 53% +10.7%
≤90d 250 +11.8% +1.2% 56% 52% +4.7%
all 253 +10.5% -0.0% 56% 51% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 51% +3.4%
10% -9.6% 51% -6.5%
15% -18.3% 49% -15.5%
20% -26.3% 47% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.28 · official $506.29 (match) · 621 history records