Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DE 0xdeea…2d5d other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 512d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,170 (-45%) realized −$2,211 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days+$87
14 days+$321
30 days+$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$2,245
world 13% −$147
politics 11% +$246
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +12.3% +1.6% 50% 50% -2.6%
≤30d 3 +28.0% +15.8% 67% 67% +9.6%
≤90d 3 +28.0% +15.8% 67% 67% +9.6%
all 8 +1.4% -8.3% 75% 38% -55.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 38% -55.2%
10% -17.0% 25% -59.5%
15% -25.1% 25% -63.4%
20% -32.4% 12% -67.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$1,334 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized−$2,211
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage512d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $213 $256 +$44 (+20%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $489 +$234 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $636 −$147 -23%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $396 +$235 +59%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Sep 24 $2,520 −$2,520 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 04 $76 +$3 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $75 +$1 +2%
Will any of Trump’s children launch a coin by Friday? Mar 14 $66 +$9 +14%
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address? Jan 21 $60 +$5 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $115 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $215 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $158 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $331 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $489 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $636 5d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 62¢ $91 47d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 62¢ $305 47d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,442 265d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 43¢ $78 266d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? SELL No 31¢ $78 439d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 30¢ $76 439d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $75 459d
Will any of Trump’s children launch a coin by Friday? BUY No 88¢ $66 512d
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address? BUY No 92¢ $60 512d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.48 · official $520.50 (match) · 21 history records