Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:21:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdedc…5f09 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% $0
world 31% +$1
politics 14% $0
economics 6% +$1
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.3%
all 44 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage328d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $29 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 10 $13 −$2 -14%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 29 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be l Jul 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 27 $47 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 26 $3 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $72 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $56 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 25 $3 $0 +14%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25? Jul 25 $72 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $16 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $33 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $33 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $33 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $33 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $30 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $30 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.41 · official $33.41 (match) · 125 history records