Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeda…1b87 crypto 32 markets active 3d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-46%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$38
sports 11% −$8
other 9% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 50% -36.3%
≤30d 32 -49.4% -54.2% 34% 28% -60.5%
≤90d 32 -49.4% -54.2% 34% 28% -60.5%
all 32 -49.4% -54.2% 34% 28% -60.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.2% 28% -60.5%
10% -58.6% 19% -64.3%
15% -62.6% 16% -67.7%
20% -66.3% 9% -70.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +80%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $12 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 21¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 23¢ $3 9d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records