Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xded9…1300 other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,179 (-1%) realized −$1,183 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate17%24W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$987per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$17
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$274
politics 34% −$59
sports 14% −$850
economics 2% −$6
world 2% −$25
tech 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -0.9% -10.4% 7% 2% -10.6%
all 140 -4.7% -13.8% 17% 9% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 9% -10.3%
10% -22.0% 9% -18.9%
15% -29.5% 9% -26.7%
20% -36.5% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,528) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$19 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$1,157
Realized−$1,183
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 142
History coverage163d
Avg bet$987
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $835 $838 +$4 (+0%)
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $319 $319 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,139 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,173 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,949 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,761 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $439 +$1 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $696 +$1 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,232 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,120 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,136 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,166 −$4 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,733 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $2,012 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $2,834 −$4 -0%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 30 $1,573 −$1,573 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,862 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $3,083 −$3 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,339 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,435 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,478 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $3,714 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,527 −$3 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,017 −$2 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $2,873 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,321 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,616 −$3 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,341 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $319 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $518 2h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $519 3h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $521 42h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $522 44h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $543 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $544 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $550 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $551 7d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $469 7d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $470 8d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $814 8d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $816 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $835 9d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,573 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,575 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,056 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,590 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,592 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,342 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,344 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,556 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,558 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,607 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,609 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,542 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,544 18d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $719 19d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $720 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,157.39 · official $1,157.39 (match) · 440 history records