trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 99¢ | $53,053 | $54,138 | +$1,085 (+2%) |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $9,233 | $9,200 | −$33 (-0%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 78¢ | 81¢ | $3,180 | $3,333 | +$153 (+5%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 88¢ | $2,981 | $3,150 | +$169 (+6%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 91¢ | 92¢ | $2,916 | $2,960 | +$44 (+2%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 78¢ | 82¢ | $2,418 | $2,557 | +$139 (+6%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1,330 | $1,380 | +$50 (+4%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | $754 | $814 | +$61 (+8%) |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $98 | $99 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 02 | $41,000 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Jun 01 | $119,921 | +$1,209 | +1% |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | May 31 | $470 | +$30 | +6% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 24 | $750,000 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | May 14 | $27,205 | +$316 | +1% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 14 | $51,817 | +$3,871 | +8% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | May 14 | $147,895 | +$1,010 | +1% |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | May 07 | $99 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 30 | $457,444 | +$7,862 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 7 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 71% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 78% | 0% | -8.7% |
| all | 9 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 78% | 0% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -7.5% | 0% | -8.7% |
| 10% | -16.4% | 0% | -17.4% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -24.5% | 0% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -31.9% | 0% | -32.7% |